The Future Role of CO2 Capture and Storage Results of the IEA-ETP Model

The IEA Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) model has been used for an assessment of the future role of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) in a greenhouse gas emission constrained world. This bottom-up systems engineering model covers the whole global energy system “from cradle to grave”, and it contains a technology database. The market forces are simulated in a least-cost optimisation. Competing strategies such as CCS, renewable energy and energy efficiency are assessed. First, the characteristics of emerging CCS technologies and their applications were assessed. While CCS is currently feasible from an engineering perspective, further efficiency gains and cost reductions are essential in order to achieve cost-effectiveness. A number of promising alternatives are being developed, but at this stage it is not yet possible to pick winning strategies. Further, it should be noted that permanence of storage is of eminent importance for the feasibility of a CCS strategy, and opinions diverge if permanence is a problem. The modelling results suggest that CCS can play an important role in a reduction of CO2 emissions in the first part of the 21 century. The electricity sector is one of the leading candidates for CO2 capture, representing 52 to 89 percent of total CO2 capture, for the different scenarios analysed, in the period 20202040. The modelling results suggest that fossil fuelled power plants with CO2 capture represent up to 22 percent of total global electricity production capacity by 2030 and 40 percent by 2050. The electricity output of coal and gas fired power plants is significantly reduced, compared to the reference scenario due to an increased reliance on renewables (-14 percent to -44 percent for coal, -6 to -35 percent for gas). The results suggest for the IEA Member countries as a whole, higher gas use for electricity production in policy scenarios with CCS, compared to the policy scenarios without CCS. This issue needs to be studied in greater detail on a region or country level and with a broader range of policy scenarios. Also outside the electricity sector, an important potential exists for CO2 capture that has so far not received as much attention. It is recommended that this potential be studied in greater detail. The main candidates are manufacturing industries and oil refineries. Hydrogen production from fossil fuels with CO2 capture may be a candidate on the longer term. While there is a significant technological CCS potential, the practical introduction will be limited by uncertainty for investors and the political willingness to use scarce funds for an environmental problem of an uncertain magnitude. Moreover, local public acceptance of CO2 storage is a concern. Several pilot plants of a 250-500 MW scale should be developed. The cost of such pilot plants is in the order of several billions of dollars. Uncertainties regarding the feasibility and permanence of storage need to be reduced via additional RD&D. Permanence validation and monitoring systems need further development. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IEA or IEA policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. 9, rue de la Fédération, 75739 Paris Cedex 15 [email protected] International Energy Agency www.iea.org D. Gielen EET/2003/04